In the emerging space economy, Earth should remain the dominant economic core, but the Moon is the most credible candidate to become the richest jurisdiction per person. Our 2060 base case places Earth at $278tn GDP and 10.3bn population, or ~$27,000 GDP per capita. By contrast, we model the Moon at $180bn GDP with only 120,000 residents, implying ~$1.5m GDP per capita. Mars, while strategically compelling, is likely to remain earlier-stage at $2.7bn GDP and 18,000 residents, or ~$150,000 GDP per capita.
The Moon’s edge is simple: extreme capital intensity, tiny labour base, and strategic scarcity. A small population operating high-value infrastructure — transport, power, communications, robotics and early resource processing — can produce extraordinary output per resident. This is why the Moon, not Mars, is the most likely first off-Earth economy to generate million-dollar GDP per capita. Mars remains the superior long-duration civilization platform, but in the close future it is not the wealth leader.
2060 House View
Earth = largest economy.
Moon = richest per person.
Mars = longer-duration strategic option.
Agris F1 